Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.016314 0.018472 0.020811 0.023536 0.026624 0.030017 0.034028
2025-08-10 0.012775 0.015712 0.019170 0.023544 0.028935 0.035372 0.043652
2025-08-17 0.010609 0.013807 0.017790 0.023122 0.030084 0.038886 0.050887
2025-08-24 0.009356 0.012752 0.017183 0.023394 0.031900 0.043171 0.059295
2025-08-31 0.008250 0.011703 0.016390 0.023231 0.032991 0.046463 0.066557
2025-09-07 0.007584 0.011151 0.016169 0.023761 0.035002 0.051099 0.076031
2025-09-14 0.006668 0.010126 0.015150 0.023005 0.035029 0.052832 0.081364
2025-09-21 0.006021 0.009421 0.014511 0.022713 0.035666 0.055447 0.088173
2025-09-28 0.005372 0.008643 0.013678 0.022022 0.035587 0.056909 0.093246
2025-10-05 0.005156 0.008520 0.013837 0.022892 0.038026 0.062486 0.105378
2025-10-12 0.004894 0.008294 0.013804 0.023432 0.039953 0.067364 0.116754
2025-10-19 0.004675 0.008114 0.013826 0.024051 0.042044 0.072660 0.129272
2025-10-26 0.004319 0.007678 0.013390 0.023867 0.042770 0.075749 0.138325
2025-11-02 0.004025 0.007323 0.013064 0.023847 0.043783 0.079423 0.148782
2025-11-09 0.003699 0.006881 0.012543 0.023421 0.044006 0.081677 0.156780
2025-11-16 0.003508 0.006667 0.012413 0.023697 0.045543 0.086444 0.169937
2025-11-23 0.003274 0.006352 0.012067 0.023531 0.046215 0.089625 0.180273
2025-11-30 0.003150 0.006238 0.012088 0.024068 0.048290 0.095651 0.196789
2025-12-07 0.002880 0.005812 0.011475 0.023302 0.047701 0.096390 0.202577
2025-12-14 0.002688 0.005527 0.011114 0.023007 0.048034 0.098980 0.212415
2025-12-21 0.002469 0.005169 0.010578 0.022307 0.047464 0.099667 0.218243
2025-12-28 0.002429 0.005179 0.010790 0.023188 0.050301 0.107675 0.240677
2026-01-04 0.002358 0.005116 0.010845 0.023735 0.052461 0.114409 0.260881